The curse is as old as the first issue.  In August 1954 baseball player Eddie Matthews was on the cover after leading the Milwaukee Braves to a nine-game winning streak.  Yet as soon as the magazine was on the news stands the team lost.  A week later Matthews picked up an injury that caused him to miss seven games.  Most famously in 1957, the headline “Why Oklahoma is Unbeatable” attested to the fact that they hadn’t lost in 47 games.  Sure enough they lost the next to Notre Dame 7-0.  Maybe the added pressure of the media attention caused the crisis in performance.  Far more likely is that the curse is simply an example of a mathematical phenomenon “regression to the mean”.

I first came across the idea of regression to the mean, and the association with the curse, in a maths book my wife Kate brought back from a maths teacher’s course.  Your performance on any given Thursday on the Somerleyton 10 mile time trial (the time you record) is subject to many random variations:  The wind strength and direction, surface condition, traffic, how well rested you are, what you’ve eaten, your mental state, what infections your body may be fighting unknown to yourself, your bike’s condition etc.  You are capable of a certain average performance or “mean” time but on any day your actual time will vary from this.  Results get less likely the further from the mean they are but they are still possible, good or bad.  A personal best is by definition well removed from your mean performance so therefor, it is highly likely to be followed by a worse performance, “Regression to the Mean”.  Training and experience will result in an improvement in performance over time but this is an improvement in your mean.  Your actual times follow a very spiky up and down path.

I managed a course PB last Thursday and yep, this week I was half a minute slower.  Neil recorded his best Somerleyton time so far last week but was 15 seconds slower again this week.  Poor Josh Carr seemed very down last week when he failed to continue to improve but It didn’t seem like an appropriate time to launch into a statistics lecture.  This is that lecture.  Next time you peer over Norman’s shoulder and your heart sinks it might help just a bit to remember the “Curse of Sports Illustrated”.

Adam.

You can read a far better version of this and loads of other fascinating maths stuff in:

“Alex’s Adventures in Numberland” by Alex Bellos.

It was a tough demanding evenning with the wind blowing in exactly the wrong direction for a fast night- against you on the legs to Blundeston and Lound. The weather did not stop another big turnout with a great mix of experienced, club riders and complete novices having a crack at the 5 and 10mile challenges. Few other clubs can boast such a mix of riders on a regular basis especially as this weeks 30 odd riders were a different mix to last weeks.

It was great to see some of our younger members riding a 5mile TT (Closer to 5.2miles actually!). Zak had a fantastic first ever TT and he looks an exciting prospect for the remainder of the year. Chasing him hard was another 12 year old novice, Patrick Manning who this week shew us his true speed after a wrong turn last time out. Sufferfest youngsters Jack and Will rode enthusiastically with Jack improving his Personal Best and Will just outside his. Well done lads – great rides. Keep it up and see your times tumble.

Liam “Animal” Gentry was again a clear winner from Neil who was again delighted to beat his course PB – by that single second, they all count! Liam is getting quicker and stronger and knows the course well. He will surely be ready for a crack at the long standing outright course record before the summer is out and would be a very popular winner of that prize.

The VCB trio of Nick, Mark and Mark were closely matched with ex-GYCC rider Mark Westrup making a massive improvement on his season best. Rock Racing rider Lee chased them home with Iceni Velo guest Simon pipping all of them.

Larry was the next GYCC rider and rode strongly to hold off Chris Laurie who was making his first appearance of the year – welcome back Chris. Roger is steadily improving and Clive, debutant Stuart and Anthony were very closely matched. Anthony was rightfully delighted with his first Somerleytom 10 – another winter Sufferfest training regular.

Another first-timer, Tim, had an awesome ride to pip series leader Rob Harlow. Stadium graduate George Smedley was smiling as ever with his first ever TT and recorded a time just outside the iconic 20mph barrier and 3 seconds faster than Lee Hurren you is also homing in on the same target. I reckon you elders better keep an eye on young George over the next few weeks….

James, Josh and Nick suffered in the harsher conditions this week but will surely go faster again next week – you can not do PBs every week boys! Chris Womack rode his beautiful Brian Rourke 1980′s machine that was the envy of all riders of a certain age! It was great to welcome Daniel to his first club event. We hope you enjoyed your ride and come back to see us again chap!

Our two Sufferfest girls – Holly and Grainne – had mixed nights. Holly improved on her Personal Best, a remarkable achievement on such a difficult night. Well done Holly, can’t wait to see what next week brings you. Grainne was gutted having been let down by two derailments but kept her irish smile and cheer. Grainne is really enjoying her cycling. Its a pleasure to have such enthusiastic new members coming into the club and she has just introduced her young daughters Jodie and Cara to the sport at the clubnight this week and they look like naturals aswell!  Better luck next week Grainne.

Another delighted rider was Matt Carr who despite being ill during the week  somehow found a way to improve his personal best by around 40 seconds – a huge amount. Outstanding effort Matt, well done chap.

Jules Claxton was out taking pictures and can be seen here:  http://jalbum.net/en/a/972260/ If you want a copy of the pics let Jules  know and he will email you a low res file (please email Jules at  info@julianclaxtonphotography.com). Professional snapper Jules will not charge anyone if you want a copy – but your support for the Cycle to Rwanda challenge would be fab…  follow him on twitter @cycle2rwanda and link to Jules at @jules_foto.

It was another big turnout of riders enjoying their evening sport thanks to the efforts of Norman and several club volunteers who kept the riders safe and ensured we all had a chance to ride – thanks very much.

1 Zak Coleman GYCC 0:16:46 5 tt
2 Patrick Manning GYCC 0:18:16 5 tt
3 Jack Colby GYCC 0:18:32 5 tt
4 William Sampson GYCC 0:19:57 5 tt
5 Jenny Anderson/Nikkie Hawkes VCB 0:28:36 2-up
1 Liam Gentry VCB 0:22:37
2 Neil Turner GYCC 0:23:23
3 Simon Millard Iceni Velo 0:24:16
4 Nick Esser VCB 0:24:25
5 Mark Westrup VCB 0:24:39
6 Mark Newnham VCB 0:24:47
7 Lee Cook Rock Racing 0:26:28
8 Larry Colby GYCC 0:26:36
9 Chris Laurie GYCC 0:26:50
10 Roger Farrow GYCC 0:27:06
11 Clive Julian GYCC 0:28:20
12 Stuart Burdett GYCC 0:28:26
13 Anthony Perkins GYCC 0:28:38
14 Mark Dixon Tri-Anglia 0:28:40
15 Tim Amphlett GYCC 0:29:10
16 Rob Harlow GYCC 0:29:16
17 George Smedley GYCC 0:30:10
18 Lee Hurren GYCC 0:30:13
19 Chris Womack VCB 0:30:24
20 James Soanes GYCC 0:31:10
21 Josh Carr GYCC 0:31:46
22 Daniel Clegg Private 0:32:24
23 Anthony Potts VCB 0:32:35
24 Holly Notcutt GYCC 0:33:13
25 Matt Carr GYCC 0:36:05
26 Nick Popay GYCC 0:37:13
27 Grainne Donovan GYCC D.N.F.

Its close at the top, and the middle and the bottom! The series is hotting up nicely. Here are the full standings:

Name Club Status Points
Rob Harlow GYCC Novice 22
Mark Westrup VCB Intermediate 20
Jenny Anderson VCB Lady 20
Harley Matthews GYCC U16 20
Oliver Postle GYCC U16 18
Ian Sandall GYCC Intermediate 16
James Soanes GYCC Novice 16
Nick Esser VCB Clubman 14
Kevin House GYCC Intermediate 14
Lee Hurren GYCC Novice 14
Josh Carr GYCC U16 14
Neil Turner GYCC Clubman 12
Chris Guy Iceni Velo Clubman 10
Roger Farrow GYCC Clubman 10
Liam Gentry VCB Clubman 10
Holly Notcutt GYCC Lady 10
Grainne Donovan GYCC Lady 8
Mat Carr GYCC U16 8
Adam Houlgate GYCC Intermediate 6
Larry Colby GYCC Intermediate 6
Chris Womack VCB Intermediate 6
Gareth Flack GYCC Novice 6
Lee Cheung GYCC Intermediate 4
Sam Goffin GYCC Novice 4
Nick Popay GYCC Novice 4
Dom Lee GYCC Intermediate 2
Mark Nickerson GYCC Intermediate 0
Ray Eastick GYCC Intermediate 0
Clive Bond GYCC Intermediate 0

Wow, a great nights racing again with several debut riders and some very close results on a mild but damp and slippery night. A sudden downpour just as the first riders were starting washed lots of gravel onto the road and debutant Stuart punctured around half distance. Not so lucky was Tuesday clubnight’s organiser Adam Houlgate who slipped on the final bend and suffered some road rash. He is ok and in good spirits and promises to bounce back straightaway. Better luck next time Adam and thanks to Clive J and Holly who patched him up, Pat who drove him home and Larry who took his bike home – a great GYCC team effort!

The girls were out in force with Holly and Grainne having a great time on their first outing. When done girls – we hope you will come back again next week and beat your new Personal Best.

The Sufferfest Master Kev House lowered his course PB for the second consecutive ride and chased Ian Sandall home who rode brilliantly again. Dom, Mark and Clive stacked out the 27′s and Roger is improving and is now in the 28′s with the improving Harley, Rob and Lee. Its getting very packed in the mid-field and the gaps are getting closer as the riders improve week on week. Keep it up chaps – the Sufferfest is working.

Young Oli was on fire again with another PB as was James on his beautiful 40 year old bike who beat 20mph by the smallest margin – but they all count!!! We should give him 30 seconds handicap for each of the decades of his bike’s age!!! Lee Hurren improved again as is knocking on the door of 20mph – go for it next week Lee…

Broth’s Josh (I’ve got some new shoes!) and Matt Carr rode well and both went faster (nice!). Big Ray Eastick suffered a small bout of illness on the way around but still returned a pretty presentable time and Nick Popayput in a valiant effort that he is sure to improve upon over the series – well done Nick keep it rolling. Local Sports Teacher Gareth Flack is making progress and looks good on his new tri-bars.

The winner was (again) the awesome Liam despite saying he was taking it easy around the slippery bits. VCB took 3rd also with Nick Esser (both recent 2nd claim members to GYCC!). Splitting the VCB boys was a delighted Neil T who set himself a new course PB with 23:24.

We had several riders arriving late who were a little disappointed at not being able to ride. Please accept our apologies, we have to get the field organised and started on time and that sometimes means we have to politely decline later entries. We will try to find a way of incorporating late arrivees without comprising a prompt start over the next few weeks. When done again to Norman and pusher-off Pat for a great nights racing. Can’t wait for the next round next week!

Results from Round #2 of the 2011 TT Series (league table to follow soon):

No. Name Club Actual
1 Liam Gentry VCB 0:22:42
2 Neil Turner GYCC 0:23:24
3 Nick Esser VCB 0:24:49
4 Mark Westrup VCB 0:25:22
5 Ian Sandal GYCC 0:26:03
6 Kevin House GYCC 0:26:18
7 Lee Cook Rock Racing 0:26:29
8 Chris Womack VCB 0:27:07
9 Dom Lee GYCC 0:27:24
10 Mark Nickerson GYCC 0:27:51
11 Clive Julian GYCC 0:27:53
12 Roger Farrow GYCC 0:28:06
13 Harley Matthews GYCC 0:28:15
14 Jenny Anderson VCB 0:28:24
15 Lee Cheung GYCC 0:28:25
16 Mark Dixon Tri-Anglia 0:28:41
17 Rob Harlow GYCC 0:28:52
18 Oliver Postle GYCC 0:29:36
19 James Soanes GYCC 0:29:59
20 Lee Hurren GYCC 0:30:04
21 Ray Eastick GYCC 0:30:13
22 Josh Carr GYCC 0:30:47
23 Gareth Flack GYCC 0:30:57
24 Anthony Potts VCB 0:32:00
25 Holly Notcutt GYCC 0:33:44
26 Grainne Donovan GYCC 0:36:02
27 Nick Popay GYCC 0:36:42
28 Matt Carr GYCC 0:36:42
29 Adam Houlgate GYCC D.N.F.
30 Stuart Burdett GYCC D.N.F.